These are the calculations made to quantify the
proposition that, in principle, any one act of masking, bluring or pixellation of a genital area
seen by boys (in particular), could result in a measurable statistical consequence at
some time point in the future.
Facts (approximated to facilitate mental arithmetic).
[a] Population: 4,000,000.
[b] Number of children: 300,000.
[c] Percentage that are male: 50%.
[d] Males at risk (ie; aged 20-50): 50%.
[e] Conviction rate per 100,000, for rape: 10.
Guestimates (approximated to facilitate mental arithmetic).
[f] Rape Crisis claim of under reporting: 90%.
[g] Those guilty of rape but not convicted: 50%.
[h] Those at risk of offending who are actually culpable: 5%.
[i] A simple ratio between relevant offences, eg: 1 rape : 10 molestations :
100 'illegal voyeurisms'.
[j] Boys 2-12 that are watching: 20%.
[k] Average 'tipping' rate (conversion of repeated observation to 'accepted reality'): 10%.
[l] Of those
'tipped' - the ratio actually committing an antisocial act: 5%.
[m] Numbers of boys 2-12:
ie: [b] x [c] x 63% ie: (12 - 2) ÷ 16 x 100
[n] Rape convictions per year:
ie: [a] ÷ 100,000 x [e]
[o] Compensating for not convicted but guilty:
ie: [n] ÷ [g]
[p] Actual rapes (compensated):
ie: ([o] x (100-[f])
[q] Ratios of 10 to
extrapolate total sex offending
[i]: 8,000 rapes, 80,000 molestations, 800,000 voyeurisms.
[r] Using the simple ratio extrapolations,
total of 888,000 anti-social acts per year.
[s] Males at risk of acting on testosterone stress (20-50):
ie: 50% of ([a] – [b]) ÷ 2
[t] Culpable males (of those at risk):
ie: [h]% of [s]
[u] Number of antisocial acts per perpetrator per year:
ie: [r] ÷ [t]
[v] Number of at risk boys watching:
ie: [j]% of [m]
[w] Number 'tipped' on this occasion:
ie: [k]% of [v]
[x] Number of those 'tipped', that act on their impulse:
ie: [l]% of [w]
So the total number of antisocial acts caused by one pixelation event could
be 1805 ie: [u] x [x]
(or about 0.2% of total sex crimes), made up of approximately:-
- 1626 acts of voyeurism (or some equivalent);
- 163 acts of molestation and
- 16 rapes.
Presumptions (the first of which needs academic support).
That the 10th recognised repetition of a pattern initiates a habit or establishes an assumption (for a child)
That the offences carry a 'net force equivalency,' producing the 1:10:100 ratio (used above)
For a proportion of the 18,900 boys seeing the genital area masked, the event could be seen in hindsight as the
trigger-point resulting in anti-social acts by the adult, from about 15 to 25 years later.
The question is: how many?
This answer: 94 men - or nearly 0.5% of those seeing that
particular pixelation event. (Obviously the number could be way out, depending
on accuracy of the guestimates - but there would still be a number!)