What if...?

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The calculations

These are the calculations made to quantify the proposition that, in principle, any one act of masking, bluring or pixellation of a genital area seen by boys (in particular), could result in a measurable statistical consequence at some time point in the future.

Facts (approximated to facilitate mental arithmetic).

[a] Population: 4,000,000.

[b] Number of children: 300,000.

[c] Percentage that are male: 50%.

[d] Males at risk (ie; aged 20-50): 50%.

[e] Conviction rate per 100,000, for rape: 10.

Guestimates (approximated to facilitate mental arithmetic).

[f] Rape Crisis claim of under reporting: 90%.

[g] Those guilty of rape but not convicted: 50%.

[h] Those at risk of offending who are actually culpable: 5%.

[i] A simple ratio between relevant offences, eg: 1 rape : 10 molestations : 100 'illegal voyeurisms'.

[j] Boys 2-12 that are watching: 20%.

[k] Average 'tipping' rate (conversion of repeated observation to 'accepted reality'): 10%.

[l] Of those 'tipped' - the ratio actually committing an antisocial act: 5%.

Calculations.

[m] Numbers of boys 2-12: 94,500 ie: [b] x [c] x 63% ie: (12 - 2) ÷ 16 x 100

[n] Rape convictions per year: 400 ie: [a] ÷ 100,000 x [e]

[o] Compensating for not convicted but guilty: 800 ie: [n] ÷ [g]

[p] Actual rapes (compensated): 8000 ie: ([o] x (100-[f])

[q] Ratios of 10 to extrapolate total sex offending [i]: 8,000 rapes, 80,000 molestations, 800,000 voyeurisms.

[r] Using the simple ratio extrapolations, that's a total of 888,000 anti-social acts per year.

[s] Males at risk of acting on testosterone stress (20-50): 925,000 ie: 50% of ([a] [b]) ÷ 2

[t] Culpable males (of those at risk): 46,250 ie: [h]% of [s]

[u] Number of antisocial acts per perpetrator per year: 19.2 ie: [r] ÷ [t]

[v] Number of at risk boys watching: 18,900 ie: [j]% of [m]

[w] Number 'tipped' on this occasion: 1,890 ie: [k]% of [v]

[x] Number of those 'tipped', that act on their impulse: 94 ie: [l]% of [w]

So the total number of antisocial acts caused by one pixelation event could be 1805 ie: [u] x [x]
(or about  0.2% of total sex crimes), made up of approximately:-

  •  1626 acts of voyeurism (or some equivalent);
  •    163 acts of molestation and
  •     16 rapes.

Presumptions (the first of which needs academic support).

That the 10th recognised repetition of a pattern initiates a habit or establishes an assumption (for a child) [k].

That the offences carry a 'net force equivalency,' producing the 1:10:100 ratio (used above) [i].

The question.
For a proportion of the 18,900 boys seeing the genital area masked, the event could be seen in hindsight as the trigger-point resulting in anti-social acts by the adult, from about 15 to 25 years later.
The question is: how many?

This answer: 94 men - or nearly 0.5% of those seeing that particular pixelation event. (Obviously the number could be way out, depending on accuracy of the guestimates - but there would still be a number!)